Does a Warm Summer = Harsh Winter?

Amongst friends, families, and colleagues, one hot topic this summer in the UK has been the weather. We Brits notoriously cannot be pleased as during bitter winters, we wish for the long hot summer days, and then when that’s been granted, we want for the cooler climes that autumn provides.

This summer, with the intense temperatures the country has experienced, nothing has been analysed more in the media and over the BBQs conversations than what the extreme heat we’ve endured means for the forthcoming months.

So, as the AccuGrit team are self-titled weather geeks, we did a little research to investigate whether there is a predictable pattern with a hot summer equalling a harsh winter ahead.

The cold facts (pun intended) are that overall statistics do not firmly support that a tropical summer will result in a freezing winter. Of course, that doesn’t mean it won’t occur; the one thing predictable about the weather is its unpredictability as experts study the trends and attempt to forecast the weather as precisely as possible. But as you’ve probably experienced on many occasions, they are not always right (Michael Fish…).

However, if you delve deeper into the data, they show a bias that a warmer summer will give us a cooler winter if the conditions fall right.

To explain the science, the persistently long, hot summer we have experienced means that a high-pressure weather system has been lurking overhead or nearby the country; this system forces air downwards. But rain clouds need rising air to form, so if this isn’t occurring, the skies typically stay cloud-free.

If this high-pressure system continues into autumn and early winter, these clear skies will persist as the days get shorter, providing longer cloudless nights as winter approaches. Our ground will then lose its heat quicker, making it cooler than usual, and creating the perfect environment for ice to form.

Early indications are that the high-pressure system is starting to move away, which isn’t indicative of a mild winter either. This movement will allow cold winds from the northeast, bringing rain in from the Atlantic.

So, since we’ve established that we can’t predict the weather for the upcoming winter, it’s best to be prepared for anything. Given the tendency towards a cooler winter, now is the time to make sure your business is ready for ice and snow occurrences.

We offer a free winter maintenance site inspection to all commercial locations; once our team has come out to assess your site, we will develop a report detailing any risks with our recommendations for services with no obligations. Contact us for more information.