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Our UK 2021 Summer Weather Prediction

24th May 2021

Considered quintessentially British, comfortably beating traits such as queuing politely and eating fish & chips, the hot topic of conversation amongst UK residents is always the current weather status and what is imminently forecasted. Now, with the pandemic restricting overseas holidays and wanting to catch up with family and friends after a long lockdown, our interest in the temperature, sunshine or rain has hit an all-time peak.

Weather is our business at AccuGrit. We predominantly use it to enable us to proactively plan winter maintenance for our clients’ businesses for snow and ice to make sure we are delivering great services. But we do also keep an eye on it during our ‘off season’ as it can provide a good indication of what is throughout the different seasons.

So, using our innovative forecasting technology, plus some sources we rely on for extra information, we can review previous seasonal forecasts to give a good indication of what is to come. To explain a bit further in-depth, it is scientifically impossible to provide accurate daily forecasts one, two, or seven months in advance. So instead, seasonal forecasts offer guidance on large-scale weather patterns and whether a given location or region will be more likely to see above-normal or below-normal temperatures or precipitation over a month.  However, this does not come without caveats as seasonal forecasts are difficult to project and the actual can vary greatly, but as technology is improving, so are seasonal forecasts.

With this all being said, the UK Met Office scientists are forecasting that 2021 will be a little cooler around the world and this means that we may not be in for a long, warm, and bumper summer that we would hope for after a long and cold winter. As we all know, this current spring season certainly has not been a record-breaker for warmth!

This is because La Niña has been influencing the world’s weather since the back end of 2020. A La Niña develops when strong winds blow the warm surface waters of the Pacific away from South America and instead towards the Philippines.

In their place, colder waters from deep within the ocean come up to the surface. It is expected to reduce sea-surface temperatures by 1-2C and will likely do enough to prevent 2021 from setting a new high mark in temperatures across the globe.

But we are still on a warm trajectory according to a provisional assessment from the World Meteorological Organization, the warmest six years in global records dating back to 1850 have now all occurred since 2015. The Met Office expects that 2021 will edge out 2018 for sixth place.

So, it is looking cooler than in recent years this coming summer but isn’t that just what British summers are meant to be like………….?

Source: UK Met Office

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